August 25, 20251 min

The AI Productivity Curve.

Productivity has always been a probability function — sometimes you’re in flow, sometimes you’re stuck for hours. AI changes the shape of that distribution. Understanding how is more useful than arguing about how much.

Dan Pupius with a nuanced view on why the data / anecdata on coding productivity gains from AI are all over the place. For him, the biggest gains are in getting started and flattening as complexity grows. This seems to me a) both obviously true and b) the first place I'm seeing it articulated so clearly. The discussion around AI and productivity has sadly become, like almost every other AI discussion, effectively a litmus test for your priors about the pros and cons of AI.

Related: Superagency and ADHD